Kirby: chances of global nuclear disaster greater now than ever

--A short news item for the April 2019 edition of the Law Society of NSW magazine LSJ | Kirby: chances of global nuclear disaster greater now than ever

The world’s nuclear non-proliferation regime is under threat and, according to experts, we may not have enough time to solve the problem.

Former High Court Justice Michael Kirby and former Australian Foreign Minister Gareth Evans spoke on the issue at a special event hosted by the Lowy Institute in March. Reflecting on the way geopolitics had changed since the 1980s, Kirby said progress had been slow. In fact, there are more nuclear weapon states today than there were during the height of the Cold War.

“The increase in the number of states that are nuclear armed is particular worrying, because some of them, particularly North Korea, [are] a very unstable ... And we have also come to know more clearly the dangers of accidents and mistakes,” Kirby said.

“We have to have a serious sense of urgency, otherwise nothing will be done. And if nothing is done, I think it’s a real question as to whether our species will still be on this planet in 100 years’ time – or maybe 20 years’ time.”

With the global tally of nuclear weapons totalling about 14,500, Evans said that in his view it was a matter of “sheer dumb luck” that a more serious incident had not already wiped the world out. One of the main reasons being that approximately 2,000 nuclear weapons are on “hair-trigger alert” – a military term meaning capability for rapid launch.

“We have learned over and over again, as the archives are unopened from the Cold War years, just how close we came,” Evans said.

“My judgment is that it is just sheer dumb luck rather than anything to do with statesmanship or inherent stability of the system that we have survived as long as we have.”

Evans urged the international community to address the issue of nuclear weapons with more vigour, noting the potentially “catastrophic” consequences of a nuclear disaster due to human or system error.

“The truth of the matter is that nuclear weapons are the most indiscriminately inhumane weapons ever invented and they do have capacity to destroy life on this planet as we know it.”

Kirby, who is a supporter of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (the ban treaty) that currently has 70 signatories and 22 State parties, said delegitimising nuclear weapons was an important moral stance.

“Those who oppose the ban treaty have got to say what they will put in its place,” Kirby said.